The 2035 Buildout Outlook
Under a moderate demand-growth scenario (5%/yr a year), PNNL's IM3 model sites about 328 new standardized 36 MW data-center campuses across the US by 2035 — roughly 11.8 GW of new electricity demand and ~10.6 billion gal/yr of cooling water. Under the higher-growth scenario (15%/yr) it climbs to 1,870 campuses and 67.3 GW. These are modeled candidate sites, not announced or permitted facilities.
Sources: Methodology, Coverage scorecard
Reporting by Eric Keller
Warm ember = modeled buildout density · cool web = the existing transmission grid the model sites near. Toggle scenarios, play the buildout, or find what's modeled near you in the Layers panel. Real tracked facilities sit on top.
How big the buildout gets
- Low growth (3.71%/yr)2228.0 GW of new demand · ~7.2 billion gal/yr cooling water
- Moderate growth (5%/yr)32811.8 GW of new demand · ~10.6 billion gal/yr cooling water
- High growth (10%/yr)90932.7 GW of new demand · ~29.3 billion gal/yr cooling water
- Higher growth (15%/yr)1,87067.3 GW of new demand · ~59.7 billion gal/yr cooling water
The model places identical 36 MW unit-campuses at feasible sites under each EPRI 2024 demand-growth assumption. Because every campus is the same size, the story is the count and density — from 222 campuses under low growth to 1,870 under higher.
Where the model floods
| County | Modeled | Tracked today |
|---|---|---|
| Sacramento County, CA | 42 | 4 |
| Mecklenburg County, VA | 41 | 6 |
| Tarrant County, TX | 40 | 12 |
| Bexar County, TX | 37 | 25 |
| Denton County, TX | 35 | 4 |
| Grant County, WA | 29 | 9 |
| Franklin County, PA | 27 | 0 |
| Loudoun County, VA | 25 | 119 |
| Rockingham County, VA | 25 | 0 |
| Sarpy County, NE | 24 | 12 |
| Cass County, ND | 23 | 3 |
| Orange County, VA | 21 | 1 |
Counties where the high-growth scenario concentrates the most new 36 MW campuses, next to how many real data centers we track there today. A big gap = where the model expects growth that hasn't been announced yet.